The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于前景理论的CGF Agent决策建模研究

前景理论(Prospect Theory,PT)描述了个体在不确定条件下的决策规律,较好地刻画了决策者的风险偏好。分析表明,PT在作战决策建模中具有一定的适用性和可行性。提出了一种基于PT的计算机生成兵力(Computer Generated Forces,CGF)Agent决策建模方法,给出了CGF Agent的建模框架,对CGF Agent决策过程中方案选择的具体步骤和算法进行了详细阐述。实验表明,所提出的方法在一定程度上提高了CGF Agent决策行为的真实性,证明了所提出方法的有效性。     

基于面积比矩阵的加权特征向量点匹配算法

提出一种在仿射变换下点集关系描述算子--面积比矩阵,证明了其在仿射变换群下的不变性质;并由该性质推导得出特征向量(EA)匹配算法抗噪性能差的原因,在此基础上给出了基于面积比矩阵的加权特征向量算法.算法构造不同图像的面积比矩阵,对矩阵进行分解得到其特征值和特征向量,通过特征值进行加权获得图像中点的特征向量,比较图像点的特征向量获取匹配关系.因面积比矩阵的仿射不变性质,算法能实现仿射变换下点集精确匹配;采用的加权特征向量法改进了EA匹配法,具有更好的抗噪性能.实验表明算法切实可行.     

基于结构光的柱体工件直径测量

为实现柱状工件直径的实时快速非接触测量,利用结构光原理,对柱体直径的视觉测量方法进行了研究.详细介绍了结构光法测直径的原理和步骤,以及激光平面的标定和坐标变换求解空间二次曲线方程及特征参数的方法.实验证明该方法测量速度快,精度适中的特点,适用于大批量产品在线测量,亦适用于恶劣环境下的测量.     

一种快速实时烟雾仿真方法

在导弹发射、飞行实时仿真系统中,对导弹尾部烟雾的仿真是影响可视化仿真系统真实感和实时性的重要因素。运用粒子系统的方法,对系统中导弹尾部的烟雾进行了仿真,提出了合适的粒子产生、运动、消灭和形状模型,并在系统中得以实现,取得了较好的效果。     

The building evacuation problem with shared information

In this article, the Building Evacuation Problem with Shared Information (BEPSI) is formulated as a mixed integer linear program, where the objective is to determine the set of routes along which to send evacuees (supply) from multiple locations throughout a building (sources) to the exits (sinks) such that the total time until all evacuees reach the exits is minimized. The formulation explicitly incorporates the constraints of shared information in providing online instructions to evacuees, ensuring that evacuees departing from an intermediate or source location at a mutual point in time receive common instructions. Arc travel time and capacity, as well as supply at the nodes, are permitted to vary with time and capacity is assumed to be recaptured over time. The BEPSI is shown to be NP‐hard. An exact technique based on Benders decomposition is proposed for its solution. Computational results from numerical experiments on a real‐world network representing a four‐story building are given. Results of experiments employing Benders cuts generated in solving a given problem instance as initial cuts in addressing an updated problem instance are also provided. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

公安高校计算机基础课程关联性分析

对＂1＋X＂双层课程体系下的计算机基础课程之间的关联性进行初步分析,揭示了教学目标一致性、教学内容互相渗透、人才培养逐层连续性等特点。     

浅谈计算机与信息战

探讨了计算机和计算机技术与信息战的关系以及在现代军事系统和民用系统中的地位和作用。并提出了信息战的概念模型、基本特征和实践效果。旨在加速信息技术的大力发展和应用,以适应未来信息战、信息化和数字化的需求。     

如何运用交际教学法活跃语法教学

英语语法教学要根据教材内容补充真实的语言材料,保证输入材料的趣味性。在课堂教学中,围绕一个语言现象设计出各种真实的交际情景,从而避免单调乏味的语法讲解;设计丰富多彩的课堂活动,加强社会交际型练习,活跃课堂气氛,提高学生运用语法知识进行交际的能力;对于学生在课堂活动中出现的错误,应掌握适当的时机,及时纠错,在课堂上建立一种无拘无束的轻松愉快的学习环境。     

基于神经网络和功率谱的水中目标信号检测方法

将功率谱和神经网络相结合,应用于高海况、低信噪比条件下,水中目标信号的特征提取中.文中首先对信号进行功率谱估计,利用目标信号功率主要集中在低频部分的特点,提取低频信号的能量作为特征,然后利用人工神经网络对目标信号进行检测.利用不同浪级情况下海洋水压场的仿真信号数据,对某型目标舰船的水压信号进行了检测计算,验证了该方法的有效性,尤其是达到了在高海况、低信噪比条件下,对目标信号检测率比较高、虚警率比较低的效果.